Cars line up at a cargo port in Singapore. (Photo: Reuters)
While long-standing allies and close trading partners of the U.S. such as the European Union (EU), Japan, and South Korea are heavily affected, facing tariffs of 20% or more, countries like Brazil, India, Turkey, and Kenya are seeing a “light at the end of the tunnel.”
Brazil is one of the few economies subject to a 10% tariff by the U.S. Additionally, this agricultural powerhouse could benefit as China retaliates against U.S. agricultural products. The new U.S. tariff policy is expected to take effect from April 9.
As a country with a trade deficit with the U.S., Brazil can take advantage of the trade war that Mr. Trump is mainly directing at China and other countries with trade surpluses with the U.S.
Morocco, Egypt, Turkey, and Singapore — all of which have trade deficits with the U.S. — may find opportunities amid the crisis, as countries with trade surpluses with the U.S. are hit hard by Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Mr. Magdy Tolba, chairman of the Egypt-Turkey textile joint venture, said: “The U.S. is imposing tariffs on Egypt, but many other countries are facing much higher rates. This presents a very good opportunity for Egypt to grow.”
He listed China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam as Egypt’s main competitors in the textile industry.
Turkey, previously affected by tariffs on steel and aluminum, may now benefit as other rivals face higher tariffs. Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat said the tariff level Turkey faces is “the best among the worst.”
Similarly, Morocco, which has a free trade agreement with the U.S., could attract investment thanks to the 10% tariff. However, experts warn that recent major investments from China — such as the $6.5 billion deal by Gotion High Tech to build Africa’s first battery plant — could draw Mr. Trump’s attention, leading to negative consequences.
Economist Rachid Aourraz, from the Moroccan Institute for Policy Analysis (MIPA), warned that Morocco’s aerospace and fertilizer industries could still be affected.
Kenya, a country with a U.S. trade surplus, also hopes to capitalize on the situation, especially in the textile sector, as other competitors are hit with heavier tariffs.
Singapore is also facing volatility, with the Straits Times Index falling 7.5% on the first trading day of the week — the sharpest drop since 2008. While Singapore may attract some investment flows, production regulations and localization requirements could pose limitations.
Economist Selena Ling of OCBC Bank noted: “There are no real winners if the U.S. or the global economy falls into recession — it’s all relative.” India, despite facing a 26% tariff, is still seeking opportunities as other Asian rivals face greater risks.
According to an internal report from the Indian Government, the country may gain additional export market share to the U.S. in sectors such as textiles, apparel, and footwear. India also hopes to secure a larger share of Apple’s iPhone production chain as the brand withdraws from China, although the 26% tariff still makes its products more expensive in the U.S.
In South America, where exports mainly consist of copper and grains, there is hope that the tariff crisis could revive long-stalled negotiations between the Mercosur bloc and the European Union. Brazil could be the biggest beneficiary if such a deal is reached.
In Mexico, a country previously heavily criticized by Mr. Trump, most trade remains protected under the USMCA agreement that it negotiated with the U.S. during Trump’s first term.
According to Reuters
By Tu Linh
Tien Phong
